The Age Paradox

The next few years will be interesting for NBA draftees and the importance age has on teams willingness to bring in youngsters. In this year's draft we saw Danilo Ganallari and Ryan Anderson drafted 6th and 21st respectively. They are essentially the exact same type of player with the exact same skill set. Both are able to shoot well from distance, distribute from the high post, provide mediocre defense, and display an array of moves from the low post. I would even argue that Ryan Anderson is somewhat better than his Italian counterpart. Because he is 3 years older however, his draft position was compromised. In this day and age, the additional years on one's body is seen as a problem by NBA teams. Potential wins over experience any day of the week.

Back in the mid 90's, we started to see the influx of high schoolers and early entries from college into the NBA Draft. They were often seen in higher regards than their older counterparts even though they were often less skilled. Players like Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and Tracy McGrady are starting to hit that 10 year mark of an NBA career. This is where injuries frequent, talent dwindles and legs start to become wary of the 82 game grind. Retirement talk often arises with players who were past this point. With these former early draft entries, they are only 29 years old. That was often seen as the prime of NBA players. Just look at Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Kareem, Wilt, Magic etc. Their greatest statistical years were often in the late 20's and early 30's.

So what will be the fate of these 12 year veterans who have barely cracked the 30 mark in their lives? Does it pay off to draft an 18 year old who will start to decline in health and talent in his late 20's or will their be a shift to drafting the college senior again, who hasn't had the 300+ NBA games beaten into his body? I think that Kobe is a freak and will probably go on playing right into his 50's. My interest lies in the McGrady's, Jermaine Oneal's and Garnett's of the world. My gut is telling me that we could see these players calling it a career at a much younger age than previous stars of past eras. And when it happens, we will see the drafting styles of NBA GM's shift from potential back to experience.